Spain - Catalan election couldn't be more uncertain. ERC and Cs tying

Spain     New Poll     12-15-2017

The leftist ERC, whose leader is in prison for the attempt to proclaim the Catalan Republic, would win the elections by a narrow margin of 24.6% of the vote. In second position we find the unionist Cs with 24.38% leading a spectacular rise since the beginning of the campaign. On the other hand, JxCat, the former conservative and independentist CDC, would obtain 17.73%. That would be a relief for a party that many considered in decline. It's leader, the President of Catalonia before the intervention of the Spanish government, has revitalized JxCat's campaign from his exile in Belgium. Now, JxCat would get 17.73% of the votes. It is followed by a party that many also considered finished, the unionist Socialist Party of Catalonia with 15.29% and CeC-WeCan with 5.95%. The ambiguous discourse of CeC regarding independence can wear them down, although due to parliamentary arithmetic it can be a key party to form majorities. In the tail we find the independentist and radically anti-capitalist CUP with 5.55% and the unionist and conservative PP with 5.41%, which is the party currently ruling Spain.

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Colombia - Take a seat to watch the next presidential election: It's going to be tight

Colombia     New Poll     12-14-2017

Semana magazine published a Invamer poll for December 2017 and what the poll show is a really disputed fight to get to the second round. Sergio Fajardo, from Compromiso Ciudadano, would be the front runner so far with 18.7% of the votes. Gustavo Petro would follow close behind with 14.3%. Gustavo is the candidate from POLO Democrático, a young socialdemocrat party founded in 2005. If in a second round Fajardo and Petro compite, the first would win with 64% and Petro would obtain 29.5%. It seems difficult then that POLO Democrático can win the presidential. The election is going to take place in June 2018.

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Bolivia - Evo Morales would win the next election and get a fouth term

Bolivia     New Poll     12-14-2017

If Evo is the next candidate to the presidential election in Bolivia, he would win with 37% of the votes. In second place we see the former president Carlos Mesa, who would obtain 20%. The question that the respondents answered was this: "For who would you vote if these were the candidates?".  In third place, we find the Santa Cruz governor with 10%. The leader of National Unity follows with 5% and Jorge Tuto Quiroga would obtain 3%. All according to the poll conudcted by Captura Consulting from September 21 to October 2.

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Germany - Small increases for the Greens and AFD

Germany     New Poll     12-14-2017

A new from INSA for the Parliamentary election. We find in first place CDU/CSU with the exact same percentage as in the last poll (05/12): 31%. The SPD also remains stable at 22%. AFD would see its support increased half a point since last week and would be today on the 13.5%. The Greens would obtain a small increase in their support of 0.5%, that leaves them on 10.5% vote estimation.  The Left also gets 10.5% but after falling half a point. After them, we find FDP with 9%. That would be a loss of 1 point. The traditional other section would be represented by 3.5% of the votes.

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Spain - Ciudadanos could beat the independentists in Catalonia

Spain     New Poll     12-14-2017

The Independence process engaged by JuntsxSi (a coalition between Catalonia's Republican Left (ERC) and the conservative Catalonia Democratic Convergnece (CDC)) could get a serious hit on the next election scheduled on the 21st of December. The unionist party Ciudadanos could win the election, at least when it comes to votes, with 21.9% support. All according to the latest Sociometrica tracking for the digital newspaper El Español. C's would be closely followed by ERC, who would obtain 21.5% and by JxCat (former CDC) with 20.6%. The Socialist Party (PSC) would obtain 14.6%, reinforcing the unionist bloc. Next on the race, we can find Catalonia in Common-We can (CeC), a leftist party that didn't support specifically any of the two blocs, with 9.1% support. After them, the anticapitalist and pro-independence CUP with 5.3% and the unionist and conservative Popular Party (who is ruling in Spain) with 5%.

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Sociom├ętrica for Catalonia

Cs [21.9%]

ERC [21.5%]

JxCat [20.6%]

PSC [14.6%]

CeC [9.1%]

CUP [5.3%]

PP [5%]